Build the pathway

Create only the elements needed to explain the intended change. Connect them in the direction of contribution and describe the mechanism for each important link: why should the source make the target more likely, for whom, and under what conditions?

Do not confuse sequence with causation. A link may be plausible but weakly evidenced. Record that honestly. Identify necessary preconditions, enabling or constraining external factors, time lags, feedback loops and alternative routes. Cycles may be valid, but they need an explicit explanation rather than an accidental circular diagram.

Look for leaps: outputs linked directly to distant outcomes, outcomes with no incoming logic, activities with no useful output, and claims that silently depend on participation, capacity, incentives, access, policy, trust or another actor’s behavior. Preserve minority causal interpretations instead of forcing a single tidy story.