Assumption quality and evidence

An assumption is a claim the work depends on but has not fully established. Write a complete, observable statement—“Regulators will approve the license by September”—rather than a topic such as “regulation.”

Four separate judgments

Load-bearing importance asks how much the outcome depends on the claim. Vulnerability asks how uncertain or changeable it is. Evidence strength describes support and challenge. Consequence if false explains what would change.

Do not use confidence as a substitute for evidence. High confidence without sources or a validation action should be challenged.

Evidence discipline

Record both supporting and challenging material. Sources can include data, documents, references, interviews, observations, experiments, and explicit expert judgment. A missing source is an evidence gap—not proof that the claim is wrong.

Validation action

State what observation, test, interview, threshold, data collection, or decision would strengthen or refute the assumption. Assign an owner and review date for every critical assumption. Preserve reservations and minority views.