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SPE Strategies and Scenarios

Define strategies as scenario sets that apply direct impacts to Drivers and support comparison across outcome metrics.

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SPE Strategies and Scenarios

In SPE, a strategy is not only a label. It is a set of scenarios that change Driver states and allow the model to evaluate outcome distributions.

Strategy

A Strategy is a named decision alternative or family of alternatives. It should have a definition that explains the action being considered and the decision frame.

Scenario

A Scenario belongs to a strategy. In the current Workbench, a scenario assigns direct impacts to Driver variables using the five-state scale:

  • NN: very negative direct impact
  • N: negative direct impact
  • O: neutral or no direct impact
  • P: positive direct impact
  • PP: very positive direct impact

The scenario is calculated by applying those Driver impacts, running the model through the cross-impact structure, and summarizing the resulting Outcomes.

Scenario comparison logic

The strongest story is often Scenario 1 over Scenario 2 in outcome metrics, not the absolute prediction alone.

Manual and combinatorial scenarios

Manual scenarios are entered directly by the user. Combinatorial strategies use options and alternatives to generate multiple scenarios from combinations.

Use manual scenarios when you already know the alternatives to compare. Use combinatorial scenarios when a strategy has several design dimensions and you want Albarena to generate the scenario list.

Comparison first

Avoid presenting only one absolute prediction. A more useful SPE story is:

  • Scenario 1 improves Outcome A compared with Scenario 2.
  • Scenario 1 increases risk in Outcome B compared with Scenario 2.
  • Scenario 2 is less attractive on expected value but more robust under unfavorable context.
  • The difference between scenarios is larger than the uncertainty range the team cares about.

Future combined-scenario evaluation

PLACEHOLDER: Albarena will incorporate combined scenario evaluation. The planned capability is to combine one scenario from Strategy A with one scenario from Strategy B and calculate their simultaneous impact. This may produce a different result than evaluating Scenario 1 of Strategy A and Scenario 1 of Strategy B separately, because the impacts occur at the same time.

Future combined-scenario evaluation

Placeholder: a future module will combine one scenario from Strategy A with one scenario from Strategy B and compute their simultaneous effect.

References

Strategic Decisions Method Comparing Risks, Performance Outcomes, and Scenarios

Internal SPE technical source describing the Strategic Performance Engine framework, variable structure, cross-impact logic, strategies, scenarios, Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis, and outcome comparison.

SPE Core Variable Definitions

Albarena internal canonical note defining External Agents, Drivers, Processes, and Outcomes for SPE model construction.

Project Performance Modeling: A Methodology for Evaluating Project Execution Strategies

Alarcon-Cardenas, L. F., and Ashley, D. B. Construction Industry Institute Source Document 80, 1992.

Modeling Project Performance for Decision Making

Alarcon, L. F., and Ashley, D. B. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1996.

Computer Aided Strategic Planning in Construction Firms

Alarcon, L. F., and Bastias, A. Paper describing the computer-supported strategic planning implementation of the performance modeling methodology.

Un ambiente integrado para la modelacion de decisiones estrategicas

Bastias Largo, A. G. Master thesis, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, 1998.

Performance Modeling for Contractor Selection

Alarcon, L. F., and Mourgues, C. Journal of Management in Engineering, ASCE, 2002.