Scenario Planning
How to complete a Scenario Planning Workbench
Use this workbench when the future context is uncertain and the decision needs to remain useful across several plausible futures.
Focal question
Define what the scenarios must inform
A good scenario set answers one strategic question over one time horizon. Define scope, owner, stakeholders, constraints, and assumptions.
Required fields
- Focal question
- Time horizon
- Context
- Owner or group
Quality check
- If the question is really a choice among known alternatives, use Prioritization Matrix or CBA.
Driving forces
Separate forces from uncertainties
Capture political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal, market, competitive, and operational forces. Rate impact and uncertainty from 1 to 5.
Professional target
- At least six forces
Critical uncertainty
- Impact 4 or 5 and uncertainty 4 or 5
Scenario axes
Build a clear scenario logic
Use two critical uncertainties as axes. Define low and high poles in plain language so the 2x2 space produces four distinct futures.
Quality check
- Axes should be independent enough to create meaningfully different scenarios.
Narratives
Create plausible and challenging futures
Each scenario needs a name, headline, narrative, assumptions, opportunities, threats, and implications. Avoid simple optimistic/base/pessimistic cases unless requested.
Review rule
- Scenarios are not forecasts
- they are structured futures for testing strategy.
Option testing
Look for robustness
Score strategic options in every scenario for fit, resilience, upside, and risk. A robust option performs acceptably across multiple futures.
Use categories
- No regret
- Robust
- Bet
- Hedge
- Contingent
- Avoid
Signals and report
Turn scenarios into monitoring
Early warning signals define metrics, thresholds, owners, and cadence. The report should summarize the scenario set, robust options, fragile bets, evidence gaps, signals, and next steps.